On skill and chance in sport

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract This work studies outcome uncertainty and competitive balance from a broad perspective. It considers four sports with varying scoring rates, soccer typically three goals per match to netball one hundred match. Within general modelling framework for two-competitor contest, we argue that uncertainty, the extent which of contest is unpredictable, depends on rate, strength variation score dependence. Score dependence essentially tendency scores alternate because possession alternates advantageous. We regard as lack in or skill, so when large low vice versa. Thus, chance. description useful it informs policy-making sport about design systems control imbalance. Broadly, find that: relatively competitively unbalanced but outcomes are uncertain rate low; Australian football league balanced spite high this sport; international rugby matches neither nor little left chance; have positively dependent.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Ima Journal of Management Mathematics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1471-678X', '1471-6798']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab026